Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
